Houston could be a sneaky upset pick in London this Sunday. According to Sports Illustrated, the Jaguars enter Week 6 as just 2.5-point favorites over the Texans, a line that has moved toward Houston since Jacksonville opened as a three-point favorite.
The game, set for Sunday morning kickoff, is the NFL's second straight international contest, with the Jaguars staying in London for another AFC South showdown. Jacksonville sits at 4-1 with a two-game lead in the division, while Houston is 1-4 after a nightmare start.
Texans vs. Jaguars: Odds, Spread and Total
Sports Illustrated's betting team lists the current market as follows: Texans +2.5 at -105, Jaguars -2.5 at -115, with the total dropping from 43.5 to 42.5 points. On the moneyline, Houston pays +120 while Jacksonville is priced at -142.
The line movement tells its own story. Oddsmakers opened Jacksonville at -3 and have since shaved half a point off the spread, a sign that sharp money and public sentiment alike see this game as far closer than the standings suggest.
Why Houston Could Be a Sneaky Upset Pick
SI Betting's Iain MacMillan is taking the Texans to cover, and his case rests on numbers rather than narrative. Jacksonville ranks 10th in offensive luck and second in defensive luck according to RBSDM.com, while Houston sits outside the top 10 in both metrics on both sides of the ball.
Translation: the Jaguars' 4-1 record may be flattered by fortune. Defensively, the Texans actually outrank Jacksonville in success rate, though the Jags have allowed fewer explosive plays and hold the edge in opponent EPA.
MacMillan's verdict is blunt: he trusts success rate more for consistent, long-term results, and he gives Houston the nod in that area.
The Nico Collins Factor
No statistic explains Houston's season better than wide receiver Nico Collins' availability. The Texans scored 31, 30 and 26 points in the three games Collins played, and just six and 17 points in the two games he missed.
Collins is healthy for Sunday, and MacMillan believes that alone changes the math against a Jaguars defense that, despite a solid season, ranks 22nd in the NFL in yards per play allowed.
Jacksonville also showed cracks in Week 5, nearly losing as major favorites to a banged-up Philadelphia Eagles team before Cam Little's last-second field goal saved the day. MacMillan is not ready to crown the Jags the class of the AFC just yet.
What the Stakes Are in the AFC South
Both teams entered the season as playoff favorites, per Sports Illustrated, but Houston's 0-4 start nearly buried those expectations before a Week 5 win over the winless Tennessee Titans offered a lifeline. C.J. Stroud and company finally have a softened schedule ahead, and the schedule maker has handed them the one opponent that matters most.
This is the swing game of Houston's season. A win puts the Texans right back in the playoff conversation. A loss, MacMillan notes, would force them to win at least nine of their final 11 games to feel good about their chances.
History offers Houston some comfort. The Texans have won three of the last four meetings between these teams. It was Jacksonville, though, that got the last laugh in 2025, winning the division and earning the No. 3 seed in the AFC.
Defense Holds the Key for Houston
Houston's defense finished No. 1 in the NFL in EPA/Play during the 2025 season, a standard it has not approached during the 1-4 start. The unit's regression, more than anything Stroud has done, explains the slow beginning.
The question for Sunday is whether that defense can rediscover its form against a Jaguars offense that has produced a high number of explosive plays this season. Jacksonville is also 8-7 all-time in London, a modest edge in a city it treats as a second home.
Final Score Prediction
MacMillan's final score prediction: Texans 23, Jaguars 20. He is taking the points and calls Houston live to pull off the outright upset.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored in Texans vs. Jaguars Week 6?
The Jacksonville Jaguars are 2.5-point favorites, down from an opening line of three, with the total set at 42.5 points.
What is the score prediction for Texans vs. Jaguars in London?
Sports Illustrated's Iain MacMillan predicts the Texans will beat the Jaguars 23-20 in an upset.
Why could Houston upset Jacksonville?
Houston's superior defensive success rate, the return of wide receiver Nico Collins, and Jacksonville's favorable luck metrics all point toward a closer game than the standings indicate.