Iran’s Strait of Hormuz Gambit: How Tehran Pressures Washington and Risks Collapse

Iran’s latest attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz show it can still disrupt global energy markets and draw in Gulf neighbors. But as the US revokes sanctions waivers and strikes back, the question is whether Tehran’s high-risk strategy is sustainable or headed for a full economic collapse.

Has the Fragile US-Iran Ceasefire Collapsed?

The Iran war reignited this week after Tehran struck at least three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, according to US and maritime officials. The attacks targeted a Saudi oil tanker and a Qatari liquefied natural gas carrier, prompting Washington to revoke the temporary sanctions waiver on Iranian oil exports. That waiver had been a major concession in the memorandum of understanding agreed last month, allowing Iran to restart oil exports after a US Navy blockade.

In retaliation, US Central Command said Wednesday it struck more than 80 targets in Iran, including air defense systems, radars, and over 60 small boats used by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to harass shipping. CENTCOM said it wanted to “impose heavy costs for targeting and attacking commercial shipping crewed by innocent civilians in an international waterway.” Iran then hit back with fresh missile strikes on Gulf nations, with air raid sirens and explosions reported in Bahrain and Kuwait.

Maritime security firm MARISKS warned Wednesday that the tit-for-tat action “marks a return to direct military confrontation.” Speaking ahead of a NATO summit in Turkey, US President Donald Trump said the MOU with Iran was now “over,” adding that “It’s just a waste of time dealing with them.” China and Qatar called for deescalation, while German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius urged Tehran to stop provoking Washington.

Why Is Iran Again Targeting Ships in Hormuz?

Iran is trying to maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that before the war carried a fifth of the world’s oil and gas exports. Iran effectively closed the strait after US-Israeli airstrikes killed several Iranian officials, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, on February 28. Later, Iran struck around a dozen ships caught in the strait before a fragile ceasefire was reached last month.

In the days leading up to Tuesday’s attacks, peace talks had stalled on issues like long-term US sanctions relief and Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Iran has repeatedly used Hormuz as leverage when diplomatic progress is slow, along with strikes on Gulf nations like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar. Attacking these major oil producers and US allies is seen by Tehran as a way to pressure Washington and spread instability so the region feels the cost of the war.

What Leverage Does Iran Really Have?

Iran’s military has been decimated by repeated US-Israeli strikes. Unable to win a conventional conflict, Tehran relies on asymmetric warfare. While Iran does not legally own the strait, it controls the northern shore, several strategic islands, and a coastline that allows the IRGC to monitor and threaten passing vessels. Iran uses fast-attack boats, coastal missiles, mines, and drones to strike tankers, disrupting energy supply without a full naval battle.

According to reports, Iran has also started charging tolls of up to $2 million per ship for safe passage through Hormuz, a move maritime experts decry as illegal and unenforceable. But Tehran’s leverage is not unlimited. The US responded with its own naval blockade in Hormuz, preventing Iranian ships from exporting oil and cutting a vital source of income. Iran had been exporting oil in defiance of US sanctions, primarily to China, at below-market prices, using a shadow fleet of tankers that frequently change flags and disable tracking.

Without the sanctions waiver and with the US Navy blockade potentially restarting, the Iranian regime now risks full economic collapse. According to the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Iran has suffered $144 billion in economic damage from the war, plus billions more in lost oil sales during the blockade. The rial has collapsed to record lows of around 1.7 million to the dollar, and inflation has surged to over 88%.

So What Happens Now?

MARISKS said the revoking of Iran’s sanctions waiver “undermines the political foundation” of the peace deal “and reduces incentives for continued restraint,” warning that “the probability of further escalation has increased substantially.” While Trump said negotiations would likely continue, he labeled Iran as led by “sick people” and said he didn’t want to engage with the regime. Bloomberg cited an anonymous US official as saying Tehran needed to behave responsibly to enjoy the MOU’s benefits, though the official said US negotiators would continue to act in good faith.

But Iran remains defiant. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf warned on X that “The era of bullying and extortion is over. It leads nowhere. We don’t fold.” As oil prices rose 5% on the latest escalation, some experts warned that further US strikes were unlikely to change Tehran’s strategy. “Instead, they risk pushing both sides further away from the negotiated outcome that … both Washington and Tehran still appear to prefer,” Dennis Citrinowicz, a visiting fellow at the Atlantic Council, wrote on X.

Frequently Asked Questions

Can Iran actually close the Strait of Hormuz?

Iran cannot fully close the strait, but it can disrupt shipping through asymmetric tactics like fast-attack boats, mines, and coastal missiles. The US Navy’s presence limits Iran’s ability to impose a total blockade, but the threat of disruption remains real.

How does the Strait of Hormuz affect global oil prices?

The strait carries about 20% of the world’s oil and gas exports. Any disruption there can spike oil prices, as seen with the 5% rise after the latest attacks. This gives Iran leverage over global energy markets.

What is the economic impact on Iran of this confrontation?

Iran has lost an estimated $144 billion from the war, plus billions in lost oil sales due to the US blockade. The rial has collapsed and inflation is over 88%, pushing the regime toward economic collapse.

Could the US-Iran conflict escalate into a wider war?

Experts warn that the current tit-for-tat strikes increase the risk of further escalation. However, both sides still appear to prefer a negotiated outcome, though trust is minimal and the path forward is uncertain.