ITC Q3 Results Preview: Profit Growth Expected Amid Market Resilience
Indian tobacco and consumer goods giant ITC is set to release its third-quarter results on January 29, 2026, with analysts projecting modest but steady growth across key business segments despite challenging market conditions.
Brokerages tracked by Business Standard estimate ITC's net profit will average ₹5,175.85 crore, representing a 1.6 percent year-on-year increase from ₹4,893.4 crore in the same period last year. On a sequential basis, profit after tax is expected to rise 6 percent from Q2FY26's ₹5,091.7 crore.
Revenue Growth Momentum Continues
The company's revenue for Q3FY26 is projected to climb 10 percent to ₹18,716.48 crore, compared to ₹17,052.8 crore a year ago. This growth trajectory reflects the resilience of ITC's diversified business model in navigating complex market dynamics.
The cigarette segment, ITC's traditional cash cow, is expected to maintain steady performance with volume growth of 5-6 percent year-on-year. However, analysts anticipate margin pressure due to high-cost leaf tobacco inventory, with benefits from recent price moderation expected to materialize fully from Q4 onwards.
FMCG Business Shows Promise
The fast-moving consumer goods segment emerges as a bright spot, with revenue growth anticipated at 9 percent year-on-year. Kotak Institutional Equities projects EBIT margins at 7.5 percent, up 165 basis points year-on-year, driven by stable raw material prices and strategic portfolio premiumization.
This performance underscores the company's successful diversification strategy, reducing dependence on tobacco revenues while building sustainable growth in consumer products. The FMCG segment's expansion reflects ITC's ability to compete effectively in India's dynamic consumer market.
Diversified Portfolio Strength
The agriculture business is expected to deliver robust 15-20 percent revenue growth, while the paperboards segment faces headwinds from global supply pressures and elevated domestic wood prices. Despite these challenges, analysts project 7 percent growth for the paper business.
Motilal Oswal Financial Services expects overall FMCG EBIT growth of 38 percent, with 160 basis points margin expansion, highlighting operational efficiency improvements across the portfolio.
Market Outlook
The results will provide crucial insights into ITC's ability to navigate regulatory pressures in tobacco while accelerating growth in non-tobacco segments. The company's performance reflects broader trends in India's consumer market, where companies must balance traditional revenue streams with emerging opportunities.
For investors focused on long-term value creation, ITC's diversification strategy represents a pragmatic approach to sustainable growth in evolving market conditions. The company's ability to maintain profitability while investing in future growth segments will be key to its continued success.
Disclaimer: Analysis based on brokerage estimates and market data. Investment decisions should consider individual risk tolerance and market conditions.