Green Bay Packers 53-Man Roster Projection: Lock-O-Meter Analysis Before Preseason
GREEN BAY, Wis. — As the Green Bay Packers prepare to open their preseason against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday night, general manager Brian Gutekunst faces tough decisions on roster bubble players. Coach Matt LaFleur insists that every detail matters in evaluating talent, but no part of training camp carries more weight than these exhibition games.
Our patent-pending Lock-O-Meter, recently updated from a Windows 3-era system, provides a clear snapshot of where each player stands. Below is the breakdown, with all players assumed healthy unless noted.
100 Percent Locks (33 Players)
Quarterbacks: Jordan Love, Tyrod Taylor.
Running backs: Josh Jacobs, Chris Brooks, MarShawn Lloyd.
Receivers: Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Matthew Golden, Savion Williams.
Tight end: Tucker Kraft, Josh Whyle.
Offensive line: LT Jordan Morgan, LG Aaron Banks, C Sean Rhyan, RT Zach Bako-Bewele, T/G Anthony Belton, C/G Jager Burton.
Edge: Lukas Van Ness, Barryn Sorrell, Dani Dennis Sutton.
Defensive tackles: Devonte Wyatt, Javon Hargrave, Chris McClellan, Warren Brinson.
Linebackers: Edgerrin Cooper, Zaire Franklin, Isaiah McDuffie.
Cornerbacks: Keisean Nixon, Brandon Cisse.
Safeties: Xavier McKinney, Evan Williams, Javon Bullard.
Specialists: P Daniel Whelan.
What changed: Lloyd moved up two tiers and Brinson moved up one tier. Offensive tackle Darian Kinnard and long snapper Matt Orzech dropped one tier.
Analysis: These players form the championship core. Health remains the wild card, especially for Lloyd, who has completed eight practices without issue. Brinson's Year 2 jump, marked by frequent quarterback pressures in practice, justified his promotion.
90.0 Percent to 99.9 Percent Locks (8 Players)
Quarterbacks: None.
Running backs: None.
Receivers: Bo Melton, Skyy Moore.
Tight end: None.
Offensive line: C/G Jacob Monk, T/G Darian Kinnard.
Edge: None.
Defensive tackles: Karl Brooks.
Linebackers: None.
Cornerbacks: Benjamin St-Juste.
Safeties: Kitan Oladapo.
Specialists: LS Matt Orzech.
What changed: Monk, Moore and St-Juste moved up one tier; Kinnard and Orzech fell one tier.
Analysis: The Packers need a swing tackle. Kinnard played well last season but faces pressure after Belton's lineup shakeup. Monk is competing for the starting right guard job after taking most reps at Family Night. Moore and St-Juste signed small free-agent deals; Moore's return-game role secures his spot. Brooks, in his final contract year, has been disruptive in camp, possibly making him trade bait. Orzech's spot is less certain with kicker Trey Smack performing well.
60.0 Percent to 89.9 Percent Locks (4 Players)
Quarterbacks: None.
Running backs: None.
Receivers: None.
Tight end: None.
Offensive line: None.
Edge: Brenton Cox.
Defensive tackles: None.
Linebackers: Ty'Ron Hopper, Nick Niemann.
Cornerbacks: None.
Safeties: None.
Specialists: Trey Smack.
What changed: The tier shrank from nine to four players. Luke Musgrave dropped to the bottom tier.
Analysis: Cox has been the most effective edge rusher. Hopper is close to 89.9 percent but was limited to young-guys drills. Niemann is a special teams fixture. Smack, who made 6-of-7 field goals at Family Night (7-of-8 including one nullified by penalty), could win the kicking job.
50.1 Percent to 59.9 Percent Locks (5 Players)
Quarterbacks: None.
Running backs: None.
Receivers: None.
Tight end: Drake Dabney.
Offensive line: None.
Edge: Collin Oliver.
Defensive tackles: Nazir Stackhouse.
Linebackers: None.
Cornerbacks: Carrington Valentine, Domani Jackson.
Safeties: None.
Specialists: None.
What changed: Dabney and Stackhouse moved up one tier.
Analysis: Dabney is the front-runner for the third tight end spot, showing promise as an in-line blocker. Stackhouse has excelled as a run-stopper, a needed skill alongside penetrating tackles. Valentine, injured, risks losing his starting job to Cisse; he could be traded. Jackson, a draft pick limited to individual drills, holds his spot by draft status.
30 Percent to 49.9 Percent Locks (17 Players)
Quarterbacks: None.
Running backs: Pierre Strong.
Receivers: Will Sheppard, Isaiah Neyor, J. Michael Sturdivant.
Tight end: None.
Offensive line: G/C Donovan Jennings, G/C John Williams, T/G Travis Glover, G Dillon Wade.
Edge: Arron Mosby, Nyjalik Kelly.
Defensive tackles: Anthony Campbell, Jonathan Ford.
Linebackers: Kristian Welch.
Cornerbacks: Kamal Hadden, Jaylin Simpson.
Safeties: Johnathan Baldwin, Mark Perry.
Specialists: None.
What changed: Tight ends RJ Maryland and Luke Lachey and K Lucas Havrisik are no longer on the roster. Glover fell one tier; Campbell and Strong moved up one tier.
Analysis: The next three weeks are critical for these players. Jennings has taken first-team snaps and must prove his worth. Williams' versatility at left tackle, left guard and center is valuable if he performs. Campbell, undrafted from Miami, has been a camp surprise but faces tough numbers. Baldwin, a slot safety, is injured; Perry is a special teams leader. Strong's special teams role keeps him here, though closer to 30 percent.
0 Percent to 29.9 Percent Locks (24 Players)
Quarterbacks: Kyle McCord, Kyron Drones.
Running backs: Damien Martinez, Jaden Nixon.
Receivers: Kaden Prather.
Tight end: Luke Musgrave (neck), Messiah Swinson, Drew Biber, McCallan Castles, Thomas Yassmin (international).
Offensive line: T Brant Banks, G/C Dylan Barrett, G/T Karsen Barnhart, T Dalton Cooper, G Josh Gesky.
Edge: Micah Parsons (knee).
Defensive tackles: Jordon Riley (Achilles), Jaden Crumedy.
Linebackers: T.J. Quinn.
Cornerbacks: Shemar Bartholomew, M.J. Devonshire, Marlon Jones.
Safeties: Murvin Kenion III.
Specialists: LS Cam Adomitis.
What changed: Brenden Rice was released. Musgrave fell from the top tier due to injury. Banks, Cooper, Gesky, Swinson and Bartholomew dropped into this tier.
Analysis: This list grew from 18 to 24 players. Parsons, Musgrave and Riley are on the PUP list, potentially starting the season there. Running backs may make moves in preseason. Swinson failed to capitalize on tight end injuries. Depth at defensive tackle, linebacker and cornerback works against these players.
FAQ
Who are the 100 percent locks on the Packers roster?
The 33 players include quarterbacks Jordan Love and Tyrod Taylor, running backs Josh Jacobs, Chris Brooks and MarShawn Lloyd, and key defensive players like Devonte Wyatt and Xavier McKinney.
Which players are on the roster bubble?
Players in the 30-49.9 percent tier, such as offensive linemen Donovan Jennings and John Williams, face the most uncertainty. The preseason games will determine their fate.
How does the Lock-O-Meter work?
It categorizes players into tiers based on their likelihood of making the 53-man roster, from 100 percent locks to 0-29.9 percent long shots. The meter updates after each preseason game.
What is the biggest surprise in this projection?
Anthony Campbell, an undrafted defensive tackle from Miami, has moved up a tier after a standout camp. His performance in preseason will be key.